Ralph's Tropical Weather Seasonal Hurricane Forecast, and Spaghetti Models
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Ralph's Tropical Weather 

Seasonal Hurricane Forecast, and Spaghetti Models
Updates also available at my Blog
https://ralphstropicalweather.blogspot.com/

R.T.W. Tropical Weather Outlook Map
Updated once daily during hurricane season (GO TO BLOG IF NOT UPDATED)
THIS PAGE LAST UPDATED OCT  14,  2018... 1014 PM EDT...

Active Tropical Cyclone Headline

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986 mb

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993 mb

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LOW 20%

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1009 mb

LOW 0-30%      MED 40-60%     HIGH 70-90%
Cyclone formation chance

Tropical Weather Outlook Map Discussion
Discussions on what you see in above map is seen below
Note: Text in White is from National Hurricane Center, Text in Blue is from Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

National Hurricane Center

1.   A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from 01N-12N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 07N-13N between 42W-47W...NHC
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2.   A tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 08N-21N, moving west around 15 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses with the wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N-18N between 48W- 52W. Scattered showers are noted from 19N-22N between 46W-50W and along the wave's axis south of 13N. Moisture with this tropical wave is likely to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles Tuesday into Wednesday. The waves along 43W and 51W will enhance showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean sea during the middle of this week...NHC
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3.   A tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from 08N-21N. Isolated showers are noted over the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands. Additional scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-13N between 57W-59W. The northern end of the wave will be moving into an area of diffluent flow after tonight. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight for the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, spreading to Puerto Rico on Monday. This wave is expected to weaken as it moves toward the central Caribbean...NHC
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4.  A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving slowly west-northwestward, and some gradual development is possible before it moves inland over Central America Monday night or Tuesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is possible across portions of Central America for much of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi...NHC
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Atlantic Basin Storm formation Monitoring
Satellite Map Courtesy of Intellicast WSI
(Manual Updates or click on image)

LOW 20%

x

LOW 0-30%      MED 40-60%     HIGH 70-90%
Cyclone formation chance

Atlantic Analysis
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East & Central Pacific Satellite
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East & Central Pacific Analysis
Analysis Map Courtesy of Intellicast WSI
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National Hurricane Center
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